USD/JPY is trading at it highest level since july 2024 (160) this event is driven by the oil shock that cause by Iran and US war. Based on the past USD/JPY now seating in the crucial level where japanese authorities have historically intervened. There will be 3 crucial event that are expected to impact the USDJPY value.
First is today 16 March 2026, where japan begins release their oil reserve. This event expected to caps both Brent and WTI upside in the short term. This will give a space for japanese Yen to breath from the pressure, and maintaining japanese yen in this crucial level.
Second, 18 March 2026 were there is Fed rate decision. Fed rate consensus are still hold at 3.50-3.75% level and this supposed to be already price in to the market.
Lastly, 19 March 2026, BoJ rate decision. based on it consensus it supposed to be stay at 0.75% rate but based on historic. i expected BoJ to verbally intervent the japanese yen by signaling on the april hike rate. This expected could trigger a short term reversal in USDJPY.
Based on the event above, i expected in the short term there is a reversal in USDJPY due to its historical intervention at this significant level.
The result is a decline in USDJPY to the level of 157.7 and our trade hit the Trailling stoploss in 158.6. We still make profit but not as much as we expect